Tag Archives iran

Women Month Series 2026| The Contested Idea of ‘‘Connection’’: Digital sovereignty and resistance in the 2026 Iranian protests

By Posted on 162 views

For decades, Iran has remained a site of conflict, characterized by tensions between the nation and the state as well as disputes with the USA (United States of America) and other Western countries. Within these conflicts, ‘Internet connection’ emerged as a central point of contention. The Iranian regime framed free access to the internet as a national threat, citing ‘enemy’ conspiracies both inside and outside the country aimed at toppling the state; conversely, Iranian citizens envisioned ‘connection’ as a fundamental tool for dissidence and resistance against suppression, while US companies served as providers of the platforms.

When these internal and international tensions escalated to unprecedented levels in January 2026, the regime adopted a policy of total disconnection. In this blog, the author explains how the concept of ‘connection’ was negotiated within these domestic and global dynamics.

Photo Credit: Bliss Team

From the connected to disconnected Iran

The catastrophic collapse of the Iranian Rial, coupled with soaring inflation, triggered immediate frustration among the working class and traditional shopkeepers in the Grand Bazaar.

Within days, the uprising spread from Tehran to less privileged cities across Iran. Compelling videos and images of the protests streamed across social media. In one instance, impoverished residents in Abdanan entered a semi-public chain store and, rather than looting food, scattered rice over their heads to symbolize a quest for dignity over basic survival. Similarly, young protesters recorded poignant messages, stating, ‘If we are not there on the day of victory, please remember us and celebrate happily,’ anticipating the severe repression that would meet their peaceful demonstrations.

Protesters in Abdanan (Ilam province) scatter rice after raiding a chain store company

A call from the exiled crown prince also prompted many Iranians in numerous cities to join the movement. Meanwhile, the Trump administration warned the regime against killing protesters, stating that its ‘gun is prepared and fully loaded,’ and former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo tweeted an allusion to the role of Israeli intelligence in the protests. When ten days of targeted throttling and localized cuts failed to quell the unrest, the regime implemented a systematic blackout on January 8 to mask a massive escalation in state violence. This moment served as a stark reminder of how the concept of a ‘free global internet’ is often overshadowed by the pursuit of ‘national digital sovereignty.’

A tweet posted by the former United States Secretary of State at the onset of protests in Iran 

Furthermore, geopolitical resentment toward US and Israeli actions deterred many leftists from acknowledging the protests’ genuine character: a struggle by unarmed citizens against decades of domestic colonization. Consequently, the media narrative surrounding these events was dominated by outlets with right-wing leanings.

The article written in Atlantic by Gal Beckerman 

 

Starlink like a hole inside walls

During the darkness of the total blackout, Starlink terminals were utilized within Iran to breach the digital isolation –  an opportunity afforded to Iranians by the power dynamics between the regime and the US. In response, the Iranian military deployed mobile jammers to disrupt satellite signals, demonstrating a new level of technical sophistication in their censorship efforts. Through these Starlink connections, a limited number of videos were propagated, depicting thousands of protesters – a scale far exceeding the demonstrations of recent decades – alongside grim images of mass casualties in morgues. These connections also carried the voices of witnesses who testified to how regime forces shot indiscriminately at citizens, regardless of social class, region, gender or ideology. Cut off from their families and friends back home, the vast Iranian diaspora – numbering between 5 and 10 million – stepped in as gatekeepers. They organized worldwide demonstrations and worked tirelessly to ensure the world witnessed the state violence by sharing videos of the protests, the faces of the victims and their individual stories.

International calls

Families of victims identifying bodies following state violence (Source: IranWire)

On 13 January  2026, mobile operators briefly restored international calling capabilities in Iran. These first calls from within the country were historic, occurring in an atmosphere described as apocalyptic. Constrained by the exorbitant cost of international rates and the threat of state surveillance, callers delivered brief, urgent messages devoid of detail: ‘They killed so many more than you could ever imagine!’. Members of the diaspora shared these conversations with exiled media outlets, such as Iran International and BBC Persian, providing firsthand testimony from inside the country. These narrow pipelines of connection allowed international agencies to begin fact-checking the scale of the state violence. Facing mounting global pressure, the Iranian government eventually published a list naming 3,117 victims; however, this figure stood in stark contrast to reports from the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), which claimed 6,842 deaths, and estimates from the UN Special Rapporteur on Iran, which ranged from 5,000 to as high as 20,000.

Reconnection

As intermittent internet connectivity was gradually restored, VPNs enabled those within Iran to send messages, albeit in a restricted capacity. Furthermore, innovations such as Snowflake – a plug-in for the Tor Project – allowed volunteers worldwide to turn their computers into temporary ‘bridges.’  By disguising Iranian users’ traffic as regular WebRTC calls (resembling video chats), these bridges forwarded data to the open internet, facilitating the sharing of numerous protest videos with international audiences.

Image by Author

However, these emerging visuals were disseminated against a backdrop of competing, reductionist narratives: international observers often framed the situation through the lens of a potential geopolitical deal or war between the regime and the US; some diasporic opposition groups used exiled media to represent the unrest as evidence of their own domestic support; and state media depicted the uprising as a terrorist coup orchestrated by Israel and the US In response, Iranian citizens used their restricted connection to counter these misrepresentations through unprecedented embodied actions.

At funerals, families invited crowds to clap, dance, and trill rather than engage in traditional mourning, reframing grief as an epic struggle and transforming humiliation into pride and frustration into collective action. During these events, parents of the victims publicly declared their pride in their children’s sacrifice for a free Iran.

A picture of the stampede at the funeral of Ali Taheri, one of the protesters killed (Source: Radio Farda).

Ultimately, the internet in Iran remains a site where the ideal of global connection and the pursuit of national digital sovereignty clash. While the regime employs increasingly sophisticated strategies of censorship and surveillance, Iranians trapped within the walls of isolation continue to build volatile transnational ties, challenging the narratives that seek to oversimplify their struggle.

Opinions expressed in Bliss posts solely reflect the views of the author of the post in question

Somayeh Ghobadi

To the memory of Somayeh Ghobadi– a single mother who bore the weight of economic hardship with quiet resilience, and whose life was taken by state forces before she was granted the simple, final mercy of holding her daughter one last time. 

 

Are you looking for more content about Global Development and Social Justice? Subscribe to Bliss, the official blog of the International Institute of Social Studies, and stay updated about interesting topics our researchers are working on.

European Peace Science Conference | Why do economic sanctions work? Do they? Will they? By Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, Binyam A. Demena, Alemayehu Reta, Gabriela Benalcazar Jativa and Patrick Kimararungu

By Posted on 3301 views

Political scientists and economists claim to understand the mechanisms of economic sanctions as a tool for foreign policy and assert to have provided convincing statistical evidence for their theories. In this contribution we argue that their theories and evidence are significantly influenced by publication bias. What does this mean for our understanding of the history of economic sanctions? Further what are the implications for the future application of the sanction instrument?


Economic sanctions have become a much more important instrument in the international arena since the 1990s. Indeed, 1990 is a watershed year. It is the year that marks the fall of the Soviet Union and thereby the end of the superpower conflict that complicated United Nations security sanctions. It is the year of the sanctions against Saddam Hussain’s Iraq. Sanctions that stood out, because they were imposed within a week, truly multilateral (the first case, for example, in which Switzerland participated), and covered both trade and financial flows. Also, the imposition could and was monitored closely by means of a blockade by the navy. The sanctions against Iraq are the show case where all economic conditions for success were met. And, yet they failed.

It may of course have been the case that the goal of the sanctions was impossible to meet because giving in would mean the end (and actually the death) of the regime. So, research continued to investigate what factors are important for sanctions to be successful. We have investigated three determinants of sanctions’ success by means of a meta-analysis of thirty-six studies that were published in the period between 1985 – 2018 (most of these studies appeared in peer-reviewed journals). These determinants are trade linkage (economic sanctions do not make much sense if the sanction target and sanction sender do not trade), sanction duration (sanctions probably need to be quick and unexpected to have a maximum impact) and prior relations between sender and target (sanctions may work better against friends than foes).

Based on this, the first conclusion is that the research findings are not converging. This is illustrated in Figure 1 indicating the consensus of the literature until the turn of the millennium. It shows that the trade linkage is a determinant of sanction success, but after say 2005 the literature increasingly disagrees. We find the same pattern for both sanctions’ duration and prior relations.

Graph

Figure 1 Reported coefficients for trade linkage in 32 studies (a positive coefficient means: the study finds that more trade linkage is positively correlated with sanction success)

In our analysis, we focussed on publication bias as a potential source of the heterogeneity of the research. Publication bias may be introduced by the science publication industry. Editors and referees force scientists to look for significance and authors in a publish-or-perish-environment may be tempted to report the regression with the significant coefficient although “the other million of regressions” that they run were insignificant. Authors may also self-select because they are, for example, convinced of the need to use sanctions and therefore, want to show that sanctions work. Or they are ideologically inclined to argue against limiting international trade flows. We use meta-analysis to measure the extent of bias with respect to the findings for trade linkage, duration and prior relations. Consistently, we find a significant bias, so strong that the underlying average effect actually is zero.

Our findings fit in the so-called replication crisis that is a general and disturbing trend in science. Scientifically, this is disturbing because it hurts the credibility and reliability of our knowledge production in the hearth.

In the end, it poses a clear challenge for policy makers inclined to design evidence-based policies and an imperative question then becomes – what evidence to consider?


This contribution is based on a research project for MA students at the Institute of Social Studies for which Alemayehu Rita, Gabriela Benalcazar Jativa and Patrick Kimararungu received the Award for the best Research Paper Project 2018. It is the second article in a series related to the 19th Jan Tinbergen European Peace Science Conference that was hosted by the ISS from June 24th to 26th June 2019. Read the first article here


Image Credit: IsaacMao on Flickr

About the authors:

pag van bergeijkPeter van Bergeijk (www.petervanbergeijk.org) is Professor of International Economics and Macroeconomics at the ISS.

 

 

Binyam

Binyam Afewerk Demena is a Postdoctoral Researcher at the International Institute of Social Studies (ISS), Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR). His PhD and MA in Development Economics from the ISS, EUR. His research interests relate to primary empirical research and meta-analysis in development economics, international economics, fishery economics, health economics and other related issues. He has published articles in Applied Economics, Journal of Economic Surveys, Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, and Third World Quarterly among others.

Alemahyu.jpg

Alemayehu Sisay Reta is a research assistant at the ISS. His research and professional experiences are in the areas of Development, Economics, Economic sanction, Project Feasibility Studies, Business and Economic analysis, Monitoring and Impact Evaluation and Program Development. He has an MA graduate in Economics of Development, 2018, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam.

Gabriela

 

Gabriela Benalcazar Jativa is an MA graduate in Economics of Development, 2018, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam. She specializes in quality assurance but she is also interested in researching issues concerning local development and meta-analysis.

Patrick

Patrick Bitandaro Kimararungu is an MA graduate in Economics of Development, 2018, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam. Patrick’s MA thesis focused on Meta-Analysis on Economic Sanctions. His interests lie in the continuation of economic policy research especially in developing countries.